A new Emerson College poll suggests the 2028 presidential race is already taking shape, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio rapidly closing in on Vice President JD Vance in the Republican field, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has emerged as the early Democratic front-runner, according to the New York Post.
Among likely GOP primary voters, Vance now holds 36% support, a sharp drop from the 52% he commanded in polls conducted in August 2025 and February. Rubio, by contrast, has surged to 35%, a dramatic climb from just 9% and 20% in those earlier surveys. The shift marks a significant tightening of the race between the two.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted the reversal in momentum. “The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February,” he said, pointing to a contest that now appears evenly matched. Rubio’s gains are driven largely by voters over 50, where he leads Vance 41% to 35%. Vance, however, maintains an advantage with younger Republicans under 50, leading 37% to 26%.
Further down the Republican field, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are tied at 5% each. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains a factor, with 15% of GOP voters still undecided — an increase of four points since earlier polling.
The poll lands as President Trump has been publicly testing the waters, informally surveying crowds at rallies about whether they prefer Vance or Rubio as his political successor. He has even floated the idea of a joint ticket, describing a potential Vance-Rubio pairing as a “dream team.”
On the Democratic side, Buttigieg has edged ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom. Buttigieg now leads with 18% support, up slightly from 16% earlier this year. Newsom has slipped to 16%, down nine points from his 25% standing last August. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez places third with 11%, followed by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris, who are tied at 10% each. Shapiro has gained ground since last year, rising five points, while Harris has seen a slight dip of one point. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear rounds out the top tier with 9% support.