According to CNN data reporter Harry Enten, new polling shows that former President Donald Trump has much higher numbers when compared to the 2020 election.
In Arizona, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump ahead of Vice President Harris by 5 points, a 4 point lead in Georgia, and a 3 point lead in North Carolina. Enten described the polling numbers as “significantly better” from polling data during the 2020 election.
“You’ve got a lot of red on this screen, this is pretty good news for Donald Trump … You take it all together in these three key battleground states, two of which [President] Joe Biden carried 4 years ago, we see that Donald Trump is ahead and by an average of 4 points, significantly better than he did back in 2020 across all of these states,” Enten explained.
The CNN reporter then pointed out the “great divide” between the Sun Belt states and the Great Lake states where Harris has a slight 2 point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Enten acknowledged Trump’s coalition as much more racially “diverse” than in previous elections with increase in non-white voters from 16% support to 20% in the 2024 election.
“If you know anything about those Sun Belt battleground states, it’s that they are more diverse than those Great Lake battleground states,” he said. “In the Southwest, they’re more Hispanic than they are nationwide, in the South, Southeast, North Carolina, and Georgia, they are more African American than they are nationwide. And I think the real question here is, what does this mean for the electoral map because that’s what we’re all interested in and look folks, it’s just as tight as it can possibly be.”
Enten then proposed a possible electoral map where if Harris won the Great Lakes states as the polls suggest, then she would win 276-262. However many pollsters continue to wrongfully predict the actual minds of Americans, where Trump in both 2016 and 2020 outperformed expectations leading to possible wins of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and then the White House.