The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will exit OPEC effective May 1, marking a significant shift that removes the group’s third-largest producer and further erodes the cartel’s influence over global oil markets, the Associated Press reports. The move also extends to OPEC+, the broader alliance that includes Russia and was designed to stabilize prices.
In a statement carried by the state-run WAM news agency, the UAE framed the decision as part of its evolving long-term economic strategy, citing expanded investments in domestic energy production and a desire to bring additional supply to market in a “gradual and measured manner.”
At its core, the decision reflects a long-building frustration. The UAE has invested heavily to boost its production capacity—now estimated at roughly 5 million barrels per day—but had been constrained by OPEC quotas. Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on Feb. 28, the country was producing about 3.4 million barrels daily, well below its potential, according to the outlet.
Analysts say the desire for greater flexibility played a decisive role. Karen Young of Columbia University noted that leaving OPEC allows the UAE to deepen ties with key energy consumers such as China while also competing more directly with Saudi Arabia. That rivalry has intensified in recent years, spanning both economic ambitions and geopolitical disputes.
Although Emirati Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei denied any rupture with Riyadh—emphasizing “the highest respect” for Saudi leadership within OPEC—recent diplomatic signals suggest strain. The UAE sent only its foreign minister, not its ruler, to a Gulf summit in Jeddah hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and several Saudi media outlets have quietly relocated operations from Dubai back to the kingdom.
OPEC itself has already been losing ground. While the group still accounts for around 40% of global oil output, its ability to steer prices has weakened as U.S. production surged past 13 million barrels per day, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s prewar levels. President Donald Trump has been a frequent critic of the cartel.
The UAE’s exit further reduces OPEC’s capacity to manage supply. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy warned that the group is becoming structurally weaker, with less spare production capacity concentrated among its members—making it harder to balance markets during disruptions.The broader trajectory reflects a shifting energy landscape. Capital Economics noted that internal cohesion within OPEC has been loosening for years, particularly after Qatar’s 2019 exit. The UAE’s departure underscores that trend, as member states increasingly prioritize national strategies.
At a recent Abu Dhabi energy conference, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum captured the prevailing sentiment among producers: global demand is still rising. “There is no energy transition,” he said. “There is only energy addition”—a line that reportedly drew strong applause from Emirati officials.