Americans should start planning for bigger refund checks this spring.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is predicting what he calls the “biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America,” with families potentially pocketing thousands more than expected when tax season rolls around.
The bold prediction came during a Thursday appearance on FOX Business, where Hassett broke down the numbers. President Trump backed up the projection during his Wednesday evening address, suggesting many families could see annual savings between $11,000 and $20,000.
So why the historic windfall? Hassett points to timing. The “Big Beautiful Bill” wasn’t passed until mid-summer, meaning many of the tax changes affecting last year weren’t reflected in forms people filled out earlier this year. That translates to larger refunds come spring.
But the good news doesn’t stop there.
Hassett pushed back against recent polling showing Americans still feel squeezed financially, pointing to the real economic data. Wages for typical workers rose 3.7% while core inflation sits at just 1.6%—meaning real purchasing power is actually growing at around 2 to 2.5%.
“Blue-collar workers have already seen an almost $2,000 raise this year after inflation, because wages are growing so much faster than prices,” Hassett explained.
The White House economist struck a bullish tone overall, citing November’s inflation report that came in cooler than expected. His message: the Trump economic formula is working again.
“If you really put the pedal to the metal on aggregate supply, then that’s gonna put downward pressure on prices,” Hassett said, noting the economy appears headed back toward the 3% growth with 1% inflation that defined Trump’s first term.
The bottom line: Americans may finally feel the economic improvements hit their wallets when refund season arrives.