A new poll is raising eyebrows showing a historic possibility could occur in California’s long-standing Democratic dominance as Democrats face an unexpected challenge in the 2026 governor’s race. According to a survey released Wednesday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, two Republicans are narrowly leading the crowded field ahead of the June primary—an outcome that could open the door to a historic general election without a single Democrat on the ballot, reports the LA Times.
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton garnered 17% support among likely voters, while Chad Bianco followed closely with 16%. Trailing behind are Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter, each with 13%. Billionaire activist Tom Steyer polled at 10%, with no other Democrat surpassing 5%.
The numbers stress a growing problem for Democrats: a fractured field and a disengaged electorate. With eight prominent Democratic candidates competing and no clear front-runner, voter enthusiasm appears to be lacking just weeks before ballots are set to arrive.
“This is historic for me, and especially given that none of the candidates have really a positive image rating with voters, also startling. I mean, perhaps one of the reasons why voters are disengaged, they’re just not enthusiastic about any of the candidates,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “They’re kind of sleepwalking to this election.”
California’s top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters—regardless of party—to advance to November. In a scenario where Democratic voters remain divided and turnout lags, Republicans could theoretically claim both spots, effectively shutting Democrats out of the general election in one of the nation’s most reliably blue states.
Even some Democratic leaders are sounding the alarm. Rusty Hicks recently urged lower-polling candidates to reassess their campaigns and consider stepping aside if they lack a viable path forward. The suggestion sparked backlash within the party, with some contenders arguing that such calls disproportionately affect candidates of color.
Despite the internal tensions, most Democratic candidates have moved forward, ensuring their names will appear on the ballot and further splintering the vote.
Meanwhile, the issues driving voters are becoming increasingly clear—and they cut across party lines. The poll found that affordability is the dominant concern, with 40% of Californians identifying the rising cost of living as the top issue for the next governor. Concerns over housing affordability, gas prices, and utility costs also ranked high.
While the prospect of a Republican breakthrough is gaining attention, history suggests Democrats still hold the advantage. No Republican has won a statewide election in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger secured reelection in 2006, and registered Democrats continue to outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one.
Still, the early polling offers a warning sign for a party long accustomed to political dominance in the Golden State: voter apathy and internal division could create an opening—however narrow—for an upset that once seemed unthinkable.